Measurement and Prediction

This discussion assignment asks you to practice concepts related to Measurement Goals --- Measurement for Prediction. The problem statement is based on the Fenton & Bieman text, Ch. 3, Exercise 10, p. 131.

Our confidence in a prediction system depends in part on how well we feel we understand the attributes involved. After how many successful predictions would you consider the following validated?

1. A mathematical model to predict the return time of Halley's comet to the nearest hour.
2. A system that predicts the outcome of the spinning of a roulette wheel.
3. A chart showing how long a bricklayer will take to erect a wall of a given area.
   

Part A (6 points)

1. Post a message providing your answer with justification to each part of the exercise (1-3). Be sure to clearly state the reasons or rationale behind your answer. If you have access to facts or other opinions that support your opinion, cite those references.

Part B (4 points)

1. Discuss with your team members and summarize the group's answer with justification to parts 1-3 of the problem. All members of your group should take part in developing your group's posting. (3 points)
2. Post the group answer to the D4 Final Group Postings. (1 point)

Grading Policy

You must actively participate in the discussion to get a grade.